BOX Analysis

Box Inc. (BOX)

Update 6/5/2017: BOX gapped to the upside after earnings were published, stayed high for a second day and then dropped back to only slightly above its pre-earnings price. I exited at 25% of maximum profit, my target level.

Shares showed a net rise of 4.7% over five days, or a +341% annual rate. The options position produced a 38.4% yield on debit for a +2,655% annual rate.


BOX publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 16 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BOX’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and at the peek of its most recent broad movement.

The price used for analysis was $18.47.

Premium: $1.05 Expire OTM  
BOX-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 22.00 92.5% 9
Break-even 20.05
Short 19.00 62.8% 41
Puts
Short 18.00 55.8% 40
Break-even 16.05
Long 15.00 91.8% 6

The premium is 35% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 1.9:1.

Decision for My Account

I have entered an order on BOX as described above. The stock at the time of entry was priced at $18.42.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 31, 2017

2 thoughts on “BOX Analysis

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