The Week Ahead: Factory orders

As is usually the case after the employment situation numbers are published, the ship of economic stats  has drifted into the doldrums, with nary a single significant report in sight. The closest to one is one of the monthly leading indictors, factory orders, out Monday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from factory orders at 10 a.m. Monday

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m., and factory orders and the Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index, each at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: The job opening and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


The sound silence from the Fed glitterati. No appearances on the calendar this week.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 3, 2017