The Week Ahead: GDP, global trade, income, outlays, durables

A series of reports this week hits the economic fundamentals: The Gross Domestic Product, a third estimate for the 1st quarter, on Thursday, international trade in goods on Wednesday and personal income and outlays on Friday, and durable goods orders on Monday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m.

Tuesday: Case-Shiller home price index for 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m..

Wednesday:   International trade in goods at 8:30 a.m., pending home sales index at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and GDP, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).



Two Federal Open Market Committee members take to the podium during the week: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on Tuesday

San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, an FOMC alternate, speaks on Monday.

One other of the Fed glitteratiSt. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, has a public appearance on Thursday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 24, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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