ADM Analysis

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM)

Update 8/2/2017: ADM rose sharply after earnings were published and then moved back toward my short strikes, allowing an exit at 24.7% of maximum potential profit.

Shares produced a net rise on my position of 1.3% over two days, or a +243% annual rate. The options position produced a 32.8% yield on debit for a +5,981% annual rate.


ADM publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Aug. 11.

Implied volatility stands at 25%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

ADM’s IV stands in the 57th percentile of its annual range and the 88th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Live: Monday, July 31, 2017

731 – 6 p.m. New York time

I have updated the BA, FB and TWTR analyses with results. I have updated SBUX with my actions after assignment, but as one leg of the position won’t be resolved until Friday, I shall defer calculating of results.

7/31 – 10 a.m. New York time

Outcomes: I entered a position on ADM and exited positions on BA, FB and TWTR. An option on my SBUX  position was assigned, and I exited the entire position, both options and shares.

I shall update the analyses of symbols exited with results after the closing bell.

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The Week Ahead: Jobs, global trade, personal income and outlays

Some of the major drivers of the economy’s wheels take a spin through the markets during the week: The employment situation report and international trade both on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Earlier in the week comes personal income and outlays, on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m.

The employment report is preceded by a sneak preview produced by a leading private-sector payroll company, the ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

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INTC Analysis

Intel Corp. (INTC)

Update 7/28/2017:  INTC rose at the open after earnings were published. I exited a 26% of maximum potential profit, one point above my target.

Shares rose by 0.82% during the day I held the position, or a +298% annual rate. The options position produced a 34.4% yield on debit for a +12,559% annual rate.


INTC publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on Aug. 4.

Implied volatility stands at 34%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

INTC’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 75th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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SBUX Analysis

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)

Update 8/4/2017: As anticipated, the remaining leg of the SBUX iron fly expired worthless, ending the position. SBUX gapped down by more than $4 immediately after earnings were published. Although the price drifted a bit higher over the ensuing four trading days, the position never returned to profitability. 

As noted below, the short puts were assigned on July 31, after the second post-earnings trading session, sealing the loss. The reaming days of the position were spend waiting for the final leg to expire worthless.

Shares showed a net declined of 4.5% over my eight-day holding period, or a -212% annual rate. The options position produced a -10.5% loss on debit for a -477% annual rate.


Update 7/31/2017: The short put leg of  my iron fly on SBUX was exercised at Friday’s close. I have exited the shares from the assignment, as well as the short call and long put legs. The remaining leg, the long call, has no market and I expect it to expire worthless at Friday’s close. I shall defer calculating results until that final leg has been resolved.


SBUX publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on Aug. 4.

Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is  2.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

SBUX’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 90th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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FB Analysis

xFacebook Inc. (FB)

Update 7/31/2017: FB gapped to the upside by $10 after earnings were published and then traded sideways for the ensuing two market days. I exited for a loss as earnings approached.

Shares rose by 4.4% over five days, or a +317% annual rate. The options position produced a -2.9% loss on debit for a -209% annual rate.


FB publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Aug. 4.

Implied volatility stands at 30%, which is 3.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FB’s IV stands in the 81st percentile of its annual range and the 94th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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TWTR Analysis

Twitter Inc. (TWTR)

Update 7/31/2017: TWTR gapped $2 to the downside after earnings were published and over the ensuing two trading as lost an additional 50 cents. I exited for a loss as earnings approached.

Shares declined by 16.6% over five days, or a -1,210% annual rate. The options position produced a -42.3% loss on debit for a -3,086% annual rate.


TWTR publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days later, on Aug. 4.

Implied volatility stands at 57%, which is 6.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TWTR’s IV stands in the 50th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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PG Analysis

The Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)

Update 7/27/2017: PG declined after earnings were published and then reversed course to the upside, allowing me to exit with little difference in the stock price compared to entry but with 22.5% of maximum potential profit.

Shares rose by 0.3% over the 24 hours I held the position, a 94% annual rate. The options position produced a 29.0% yield on debit for a +10,572% annual rate.


PG publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Aug. 4.

Implied volatility stands at 18%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PG’s IV stands in the 49th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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