The Week Ahead: Jobs, global trade, personal income and outlays

Some of the major drivers of the economy’s wheels take a spin through the markets during the week: The employment situation report and international trade both on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Earlier in the week comes personal income and outlays, on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m.

The employment report is preceded by a sneak preview produced by a leading private-sector payroll company, the ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and the Realtors’ pending home sales index at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., and the ISM manufacturing survey and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing index, each at 10 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The employment situation and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


Two Federal Open Market Committee alternates take to the podium this week, both on Wednesday: Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester and San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams.

By Tim Bovee, Fukuoka, Japan, July 29, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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