The Week Ahead: Prices, sales, production, Yellen on the Hill

Prices move to the center of economic reporting this week, the consumer price index on Friday and the producer price index on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Two other major reports punctuate the week, both on Friday: Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies twice on Capitol Hill about monetary policy, On Wednesday before the House Committee on Financial services and on Thursday before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. Each hearing begins at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Job openings and labor turnover at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:   Fed Chair Yellen  testimony before a House committee at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. The Federal Reserve “Beige Book” describing economic conditions in each region, at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and producer prices, each at 8:30 a.m., Fed Chair Yellen testimony before a Senate committee at 10 a.m., the Treasury Budget at 2 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The consumer price index and retail sales at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m. and business inventories and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


In addition to Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony on the Hill on Wednesday and Thursday, these public appearances by the Fed glitterati are expected during the week.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard speaks on Tuesday at a conference on brining the Federal Reserve balance sheets back to their normal pre-recession state, a hot topic of conversation in the money of monetary regulators. His take the stage at 12:30 p.m. at Columbia University in New York.

Brainard makes a second appearance on Thursday at 1 pm. before the National Bureau of Economic Research — the group that keeps track of recessions — in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Three other members of the Federal Open Market Committee have appearances: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Tuesday, Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Thursday and Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Friday.

Two bank presidents without seats on the FOMC this year will also take to the podium: San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Monday and Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Wednesday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 8, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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