The Week Ahead: Money rates, GDP and much more

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days, culminating in an announcement on interest rates on Wednesday at 2  p.m. New York time.

Their decision precedes public release of the first estimate of gross domestic product for the 2nd quarter, on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Other major economic reports: Durable goods orders and international trade in goods, both on Thursday at 8:30 a.m., and two real estate reports: existing home sales on Monday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Purchasing Managers Institute composite flash report at 9:45 a.m. and existing home sales at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: The Case-Shiller home price index for 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  New home sales at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC meeting announcement at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claimsdurable goods orders, and international trade in goods, all at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP and the employment cost index, each at 8:30 a.m., and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


Only one of the Fed glitterati has scheduled a public appearance: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Friday.

By Tim Bovee, Fukuoka, Japan, July 22, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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