The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days, culminating in an announcement on interest rates on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time.
Their decision precedes public release of the first estimate of gross domestic product for the 2nd quarter, on Friday at 8:30 a.m.
Other major economic reports: Durable goods orders and international trade in goods, both on Thursday at 8:30 a.m., and two real estate reports: existing home sales on Monday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday
Events arranged by day:
Monday: Purchasing Managers Institute composite flash report at 9:45 a.m. and existing home sales at 10 a.m.
Tuesday: The Case-Shiller home price index for 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.
Wednesday: New home sales at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC meeting announcement at 2 p.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims, durable goods orders, and international trade in goods, all at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: GDP and the employment cost index, each at 8:30 a.m., and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and 5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).
Only one of the Fed glitterati has scheduled a public appearance: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Friday.
By Tim Bovee, Fukuoka, Japan, July 22, 2017
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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