Month: July 2017

STX Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

Seagate Technology plc (STX)

Update 8/4/2017: STX fell by $10 immediately after earnings were published and then reclaimed about $4 of the decline before settling into a sideways trend for the rest of my holding period . I exited for a loss at a $6.25 premium with shares at $33.53 as expiration approached.

The losing short puts breakeven strike that defined the losing side of the trade showed a 71% chance of expiring out of the money at entry. Those odds declined to 4% at exit, above two standard deviations.

Shares declined by a net 15.8% over my 11-day holding period, or a -525% annual rate. The options position produced a -47.7% loss on debit for a -1,5825 annual rate.

STX publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 19 days later, on Aug.11.

Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

STX’s IV stands in the 82nd percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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The Week Ahead: Money rates, GDP and much more

Tim Bovee

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days, culminating in an announcement on interest rates on Wednesday at 2  p.m. New York time.

Their decision precedes public release of the first estimate of gross domestic product for the 2nd quarter, on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Other major economic reports: Durable goods orders and international trade in goods, both on Thursday at 8:30 a.m., and two real estate reports: existing home sales on Monday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m.

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HAL Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

Halliburton Co. (HAL)

Update 7/28/2017: HAL declined by $2 plus change after earnings were published and then swung into a sideways trend. As expiration approached, I exited at 5% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 3.8% over seven days, or a -159% annual rate. The options position produced a +5.5% yield on debit for a +284% annual rate.

HAL publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 14 days later, on Aug. 4.

Implied volatility stands at 30%, which is 1.89 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

HAL’s IV stands in the 46th percentile of its annual range and the 63rd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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MSFT Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

Update 7/21/2017: MSFT shares rose and then declined after earnings were published, and I exited a 58.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares rose by a net 1.6% over the four days I held the position, or a +144% annual rate. The options position produced a +58.9% yield on debit for a +5,371% annual rate.

MSFT publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days later, on July 28.

Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is 2.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

MSFT’s IV stands in the 74th percentile of its annual range and the 89th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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QCOM Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM)

Update 7/24/2017: QCOM gapped downward after earnings were published and continued to decline for the next two days, and I exited as expiration approached.

Shares declined by -5.0% over seven days, or a -258% annual rate. The options position produced a 14.3% loss on debit for a -747.6% annual rate.

QCOM publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days later, on July 28.

Implied volatility stands at 29%, which is 2.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

QCOM’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and the 77th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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