TSLA Analysis

Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

TSLA publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Aug. 11.

Implied volatility stands at 52%, which is five times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TSLA’s IV stands in the 95th percentile of its annual range and the 94th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

The price used for analysis was $320.72.

Premium: $22.00 Expire OTM  
TSLA-iron fly Strike Odds Delta
Long 365.00 92.0% 10
Break-even 687.50
Short 322.50 55.4% 49
Short 322.50 44.5% 51
Break-even 302.00
Long 280.00 85.0% 12

The premium is 52% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 0.9:1.

Decision for My Account

A well formed  position, but the high price of the stock means a greater commitment to a single position than I normally like to make. So with regret. I’m passing on the trade.

By Tim Bovee, Fukuoka, Japan, Aug. 1, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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