The Week Ahead: Prices

It’s inflation week in economic reporting, or deflation week, or some sort of ‘flation — no one can really figure it out at this point, as the Fed raises rates to calm nearly non-existent inflation while a non-existent deflation continues to threaten the economy. Fake ‘flation, anyone?

The producer price index final demand will be published on Thursday, to followed on Friday by the consumer price index, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time. And that is pretty much the high point of the week.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: The job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and producer prices final demand, each at 8:30 a.m., the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.  and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Consumer prices at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


What is lacking in economic reporting is made up for in park by the Federal Reserve glitterati, who this week peer out of their meditative retreats, their eyes squinting against the harsh August sun, to continue their mission to educate the nation about everyone’s favorite subject: money.

Four Federal Open Market Committee members take to the podium: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Monday and again on Friday, Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Tuesday, New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Thursday and Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Friday.

St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, who has no FOMC position this year, makes a public appearance on Monday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 5, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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