The Week Ahead: Retail, housing, industry

 

Retail sales on Tuesday and housing starts on Wednesday, each published at 8:30 a.m. New York time, and industrial production on Thursday at 9:15 a.m. provide the new economic data through which the markets will swim during the week.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the July 26 meeting, which which the committee voted without dissent to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, will be released on Wednesday at 2 p.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from the housing starts report on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Retail sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey of business conditions in New York and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m., business inventories and the Home Builders housing market index, each at 10 a.m., and the Treasury Department international capital report at 4 p.m.

Wednesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal reserve business outlook survey, each at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

Fedsters

 

Four members of the Federal Open Market Committee take to the podium during the week:  Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Monday and Friday, Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Wednesday, New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Thursday and Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Friday.

One other of Fed glitterati plans an appearance, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Monday. He holds no position on the FOMC this year.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 12, 2017

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License
Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

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