8/15 – 3:05 p.m. New York time
After posting I edited the TGT analysis to include a rule of thumb on expected movement.
It’s calculated this way: Take the price of a front-week at-the-money straddle (an iron fly without the wings) and multiply it by 0.85. The result is the expected move. By front week I mean the next options series closest to expiration. It almost certainly will differ from the series I’m trading.
I compare the expected move with the break-even points, the goal being to have break-even points that are wider than the expected move.
8/15 – 9:35 a.m. New York time
I have exited HD for a profit.
8/14 – 7 p.m. New York time
I have two prospective earnings plays for consideration on Tuesday: TGT and URBN. A study by Zacks Investment Research suggests that URBN is poised for an upside earnings surprise. I shall make a decision on Tuesday regarding whether or not to take that risk.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 14-15, 2017
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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