Three major reports punctuate the trading week: Durable goods orders on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, and earlier in the week, two real-estate reports: Existing home sales on Thursday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m.
But the spotlights and trumpets and drum rolls and other markers of drama will be focused on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the annual Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank open on Thursday at 8 p.m. (all times for the symposium are listed as New York time; the local time in Jackson Hole is two hours earlier).
Fed Chair Janet Yellen addresses the forum on Friday at 10 a.m. European Central Bank Chairman Mario Draghi will also speak to the symposium, also on Friday, at 3 p.m.
The conference will continue through Saturday.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Events arranged by day:
Wednesday: New home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute composite flash index at 9:45 a.m., existing home sales at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: Durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at 10 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and 5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).
One other member of the Fed glitterati has scheduled a public appearance outside of the Jackson Hole symposium: Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, on Wednesday.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 19, 2017
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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