The Week Ahead: GDP, jobs, manufacturing, global trade

A giant one-two punch marks the week.

The second gross domestic product estimate for the 2nd quarter will be released on Wednesday, and employment situation stats will be published Friday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Both are heavy hitters in discourse on our financial future, but it should be noted, both are trailing indicators, telling us what has happened rather than pointing toward what will. Traders who believe that past is prologue will give weight to the two macroeconomic pronouncements. Myself, I am no fan of the PIP theory, having broken my crystal ball in a tragic slip on the ice some years ago.

A leading indicator in the week’s econ mix is from the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, out Friday at 10 a.m.

The employment numbers will get a sneak preview on Wednesday by means of a report produced by a private company, the ADP employment report. Look for it on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Another major report out during the week: International trade in goods on Monday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, at 10 a.m. Monday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: international trade in goods at 8:30 a.m.

Tuesday: The Case-Shiller home price index in 20 metro areas at 9 a.m.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:30 a.m., GDP at 8:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and personal income and outcomes, each at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m., pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the employment situation at 8:30 a.m., and the Purchasing Managers manufacturing indexconstruction spending and University of Michigan consumer sentiment, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

Fedsters

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell, who sits on the Federal Open Market Committee, speaks to the Large-Bank Directors Conference on “The role of boards at large financial firms”, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Wednesday at 9:15 a.m. New York time.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 26, 2017

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License
Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

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