The Week Ahead: Short week, global trade, Beige Book, Fedsters swarm

A shortened week after a major holiday which is also the week after the employment report. Econ reporting doesn’t get much more inactive than that.

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. The other global hubs — London, Tokyo and Sydney — will be open as usual.

One major report is scheduled for the week: International trade on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

And as though to make up for the reporting doldrums, the Federal Reserve releases its “Beige Book”, a description of economic conditions in each of the agency’s districts, on Wednesday at 2 p.m., while aswarm of the Fed glitterati provide commentary on  the state of the nation.


Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Tuesday

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Events arranged by day:


Monday: Labor Day holiday. U.S. markets are closed.

Tuesday: Factory orders at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: International trade at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m. and the Federal Reserve “Beige Book” at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and productivity and costs, each at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


The highlight of the Federal Reserve’s week is publication of the “Beige Book” on Wednesday at 2 p.m., an event that often brings the Fed glitterati out to speak.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, addresses the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday at 7:30 a.m.. The speech will be streamed from the Club’s Facebook page. His subject is the usual generic one, “Economic outlook and monetary policy”.

Other FOMC members taking to the podium are Fed Gov. Lael BrainardDallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan and Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Tuesday, New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Thursday and Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker  on Friday.

Two FOMC alternates also scheduled speaking engagements: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester, each on Thursday

One other Federal Reserve Bank president, Esther George of Kansas City, makes an appearance during on Thursday. She has no position on the FOMC this year.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 1, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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