The Week Ahead: Money policy, housing

The Federal Open Market Committee culminates a two-day meeting on Wednesday with an announcement and forecasts at 2 p.m. New York time, and a news conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 2:30 p.m.

The FOMC raised the Fed Funds Rate to 1.25% on June 14. Widely held expectations are for one more rate increase this year, and Wednesday’s meeting would be a prime candidate for the decision.

Two major housing reports will be issued: Housing starts, on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. and existing home sales on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts, at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Home Builders’ housing market index at 10 .m. and the Treasury Dept. international capital report at 4 p.m.

Tuesday: Housing starts and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday: Existing home sales at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m., the FOMC meeting announcement and forecasts at 2 p.m. and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s news conference at 2:30 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business outlook survey, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The Purchasing Managers Institute composite flash alert at 9:45 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


One member of the Federal Open Market Committee makes a public appearance, after the FOMC meeting concludes: Robert Kaplan on Friday.

Also on Friday, San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, an FOMC alternate, and Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George, who doesn’t have a position with the FOMC this year, also make public appearances.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 16, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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