The Week Ahead: GDP, global trade, new homes, durables, income, spending

The third and final regular estimate for 2nd quarter gross domestic product and international trade in goods will be published on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Other major reports out during the week: New home sales on Tuesday at 10 a.m., durable goods orders on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. and personal income and outlays, also at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen addresses the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in Cleveland on Tuesday at 11;50 a.m. Her topic: Inflation, uncertainty and monetary policy.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: The Case-Shiller home price index covering 20 metropolitan areas, at 9 a.m., new home sales and consumer confidence, each at 10 a.m., and a speech by Fed Chair Yellen at 11:50 a.m.

Wednesday: Durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m., pending home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claimsGDP and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and 5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


In addition to Fed Chair Yellen’s speech to the NABE, these Washington-based top Fed officials have scheduled public appearances:

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer at the Bank of England Independence 20 Years On Conference in London at 10 a.m. New York time. The speech will be streamed live here.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard at a Federal Reserve Board Conference in Washington on labor market disparities, on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m.

Brainard also address a forum for minority bankers sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank at Kansas City, on Wednesday at 2 p.m.

All are members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Other FOMC members taking to the podium are New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Monday, Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Monday and Tuesday and Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Monday and Wednesday, and Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on Friday.

FOMC alternates appearing are Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester and Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic on Tuesday.

Other Fed glitterati with speaking engagements are St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Wednesday, and Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Thursday

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 23, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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