The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, trade

The number of employed Americans has risen compared to one year earlier every September since 2010. With the publication of the latest employment situation report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, we’ll learn how the numbers compared to the Sept. 2016 number of employed, which was 151,926, seasonally adjusted.

The jobs report gets a sneak preview with the release of the private-sector ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Additional major reports out during the week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m. international trade on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. and factory orders on Thursday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times indexfrom the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Monday

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Monday

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing survey and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., the ISM non-manufacturing index at 10 am. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m., factory orders at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The employment situation at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and 5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


Fed Gov. Jerome Powell addresses the  Treasury Market Practices Group on guidelines for managing debt by the Treasury, and agencies, and agency mortgage-backed securities, on Thursday at 9:10 a.m. in New York.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen gives brief welcoming remarks at a Fed conference on community banking on Wednesday at 3:15 p.m. Her remarks will be streamed on the conference web page.

St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, who does not have a position on the FOMC this  year, makes welcoming remarks to the conference on Wednesday immediately before Chair Yellen’s remarks.

Other members of the Federal Open Market Committee taking to the podium during the week are Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Monday and Friday, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on Thursday and New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Friday.

FOMC alternates with public appearances are San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Thursday and Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic on Friday.

Other Fed glitterati speaking are Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Thursday and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Friday, both without FOMC seats this  year, and also Bullard again on Friday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 30, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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