The Week Ahead: Housing, industry, Yellen

Two major housing reports will be issued: Housing starts, on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time and existing home sales on Friday at 10 a.m. Also, on Tuesday look for industrial production at 10 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks twice during the week, on Sunday at 9 a.m. to the G30 International Banking Seminar and on Friday at 7:30 p.m. at the National Economists Club, both in Washington.

The Sunday speech will be on the Fed officials’ generic topic, The Economy and Monetary Policy. The Wednesday speech will be slightly more focused in its subject, Monetary Policy Since the Financial Crisis.

The speeches come in during the week in which the Federal Reserve issues its Beige Book describing business conditions in each Federal Reserve bank’s region. Out Wednesday at 2 p.m.

A housekeeping note: I’m discontinuing the Fedsters section, with speaking engagements by the Federal Reserve bank presidents. Speeches by the Federal Reserve chair and governors will be listed among the economic release lists.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts, at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday.

The index of leading indicators will be published Thursday at 10 a.m. Although not in itself a leading indicator, it is based on leading indicators and so provides a useful “you are here” pointer for our present location in the economic cycle.

Events arranged by day:

Sunday: Fed Chair Yellen speech at 9 a.m.

Monday: The Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m.,  and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Tuesday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., the Home Builders’ housing market index at 10 a.m. and Treasury’s international capital report at 4 p.m.

Wednesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m., and the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business outlook survey, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Existing home sales at 10 a.m. and Fed Chair Yellen speech at 7:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

 

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 14, 2017

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

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