The Week Ahead: Prices, retail, industry, housing

Two price reports are on the economic reporting agenda this week: The consumer price index on Wednesday and the producer price index for final demand on Tuesday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Several portions of the economic pie will also come under scrutiny. Retail sales for October, out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., will provide a baseline for the holiday shopping season. The factories that those presents and much more will show up in the industrial production on Thursday at 9:15 a.m., and the ever influential business of providing roofs over people’s heads, housing starts, will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard talks about fintech — the financial technology that is remaking our economy — at the Financial Stability Conference in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Thursday at 3:45 p.m. New York time. The even will be livestreamed here.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Producer prices at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday: Consumer prices indexretail sales and the Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York, each at 8:30 a.m., business inventories at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Treasury international capital report on cross-border financial flows at 4 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims  the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey for the mid-Atlantic region and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., Fed Gov. Lael Brainard speech on fintech at 9:30 a.m., the Home Builders’ housing market index at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 11, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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