The Week Ahead: New Fed chair hearing, old Fed chair testimony, GDP, trade and more

The Senate begins its nomination hearing for President Trump’s nominee to replace Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chair, Fed Gov. Jerome Powell, The hearing will be held by the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, chaired by Sen. Michael Crapo, D-Idaho, on Tuesday at 9:45 a.m. New York time.

The outgoing Fed Chair Yellen delivers economic outlook testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

Five major reports will be published during the week: The second release of 3rd quarter gross domestic produce on Wednesday, international trade in goods on Tuesday and personal income and outlays on Thursdayeach at 8:30 a.m., and new home sales on Monday and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index on Friday, each at 10 a.m.

One other potentially important Fed appearance during the week: The new Fed Vice Chairman for bank supervision addresses the Financial Stability and Fintech Conference on Thursday at 12:30 p.m. in Washington, D.C. His speech will be streamed live here.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Friday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing index at 10 a.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: New home sales at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: International trade in goods at 8:30 a.m., the Case-Shiller home price index covering 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. Fed chair nominee Powell’s confirmation hearing at 9:45 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  GDP at 8:30 a.m., pending home sales and Fed Chair Yellen’s economic outlook testimony to Congress, each at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Reserve “Beige Book” at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and personal income and outlays, each at at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and a speech by Fed Bank Supervision Vice Chair Randal Quarles at 12:30 p.m.

Friday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., and the ISM manufacturing index and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 25, 2017

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License
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All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

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