Prices and inflation, or the lack of it, take center stage in the week’s economic reporting.
The consumer price index will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, simultaneously with retail sales. And the producer price index final demand stats will be released on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Events arranged by day:
Tuesday: Job openings and labor turnover at 10 a.m.
Wednesday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims and the producer price index final demand, each at 8:30 a.m., the Treasury budget, which reports the federal deficit, at 2 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: The consumer price index and retail sales at 8:30 a.m., and business inventories at 10 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and 5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 6, 2018
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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