The Week Ahead: Short week, industry and housing


The U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Markets in London, Tokyo and Sydney will be open as usual.

Two economic reports punctuate the week: Industrial production on Wednesday at 9:15 a.m. New York time and housing starts on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: U.S. markets closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

Tuesday: The Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday:  Industrial production at 9:15 a.m., the Home Builders’ housing market index at 10 a.m., the Federal Reserve Beige Booka narrative of conditions in each of the Fed’s regions, and the Treasury Department’s international capital report, tracking financial flows between the U.S. and the rest of the world., at 4 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey of conditions in the mid-Atlantic states, and housing starts, each at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. and an address by the Federal Reserve’s Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles on bank regulation to the annual meeting in Washington of the American Bar Association’s Banking Law Committee at 1 p.m. Quarles’ position is newly created, and he assumed the post last October.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 13, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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