Live: Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2018

1/17 – 2:05 p.m. New York time

With no trades in sight today, I am posting the outcomes early and moving on to other things.

I exited two options positions, AXP and HAL, and two shares positions, FFBC and PLXS. I began analysis of PG as a potential earnings play using options but cut it short when I learned that Jan. 18 — Thursday  — is ex-dividend day. I shall resume the analysis then.

I have updated the analyses of all exits with results.

1/17 – 1:20 p.m. New York time

PG goes ex-dividend on Thursday, Jan. 18. I shall wait until then to do the analysis as a potential earnings play using shares.

1/17 – 10:30 a.m. New York time

One useful feature of my trading style is that it forces quick decisions when the market appears to turn.

And that is what has happened today. The trend metric Fisher Transform (FT) turned down on all of my potential share trades and all but one of my options prospects.

The FT also turned down on both of my share positions and, against the needs of the both of my earnings plays using options.

I have exited the options positions AXP and HAL, and the shares positions FFBC and PLXS, leaving my accounts empty. I shall update the analyses of the exited positions later today.

I have one prospect in sight: PG, as an earnings play using options. Given the heightened risk, I shall look at it very closely as the day progresses to decide if I want to do a full analysis of the trade.

After surveying the smoking wreckage of my portfolio, I looked to the distant horizon and saw that the daily chart Fisher Transform for the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) had also turned down, suggesting that we’re in for a vacation, length unknown, from the unrelenting bull market.

A Fisher Transform signal on the SPY daily chart has recently tended to kick off a trend that lasts about a month, sometimes shorter, sometimes longer. So we’re not talking about the end of the world aswe know it, but insofar as we know at this point, we’re likely to be a vacation from the unrelenting bull market.

1/16 – 10:10 p.m. New York time

I have four prospects for consideration on Wednesday, all of them early entry earnings plays.

The two using options, JNJ and VZ, have Zacks earnings surprise predictor (ESP) scores below 1% in either direction and would be best s suited for a non-direction strategy, such as an iron condor or iron fly.

The two using shares, SNV and WBS, have high ESP scores and are best suited for a bull strategy, as my shares trades require.

All four have uptrending Fisher Transform metrics.

My shares position on PLXS is up for a decision on Wednesday as to whether to hold it through the earnings announcement. It has a narrow expectation of a positive earnings surprise and an uptrending Fisher Transform on the daily chart, although it turned downtrending  on the 4-hour chart prior to the opening of Tuesday’s session. If the 4-hour downtrending metric has not reversed at the market open, I shall exit PLXS immediately for a likely loss.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 16-17, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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