The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, global trade

First off, a giant caveat. The shut down of the U.S. government that began Saturday may have an impact on reporting. Until Congress reaches a deal on funding the government, everything is up in the air.

If things proceed as planned, the first gross domestic product numbers detailing the 4th quarter will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, simultaneously with another major report, durable goods orders.

Two real estate reports will be released: existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales on Thursday, each at 10 a.m.

Also out, international trade in goods on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Wednesday: The Purchasing Managers Institute composite flash report at 9:45 a.m., existing home sales at 10 a.m. and  petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and international trade in goods, each at 8:30 a.m., new home sales at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP and durable goods orders, each at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 20, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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