The Week Ahead: FOMC, jobs, income, outlays, and much, much more

The week begins with am economic policy whimper by the Federal Open Market Committee, probably, and ends with the most politically fraught of all the economic reports, employment,

The FOMC meets for two days, culminating on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time with an announcement of any changes to the Federal Funds rate. Since they raised the rate at the last meeting, no change is the likely outcome. The tick-tock on the state of the economy, however, is always fascinating.

The employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m., and as usual will be preceded by a sneak preview, the non-governmental ADP employment report, on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Two other reports of interest are scheduled for publication, personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m. and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Thursday at 10 a.m.

Also, look for a grand potpourri of reports that go into the index of leading indicators.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Vendor performance, sometimes called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Thursday..

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m.

Tuesday: The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index, covering 20 metro areas, at 9 a..m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., the employment cost index at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m., pending home sales at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC meeting announcement at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, jobless claims and productivity and costs, each at 8:30 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing index and constructing spending, each at 10 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The employment situation at 8:30 a.m., and consumer confidence and factory orders, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 26, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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