Live: Thursday, Feb. 1, 2018

2/1 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

I entered a shares position on FUN and exited shares positions on  CG, K and UFS, and a binary options position on EUR/USD.

2/1 – 1:40 p.m. New York time

I’ve updated the posts for CG, K, UFS, and EUR/USD with results.

2/1 – 12:55 p.m. New York time

Given the difficulty I’m having in finding trades today, I went back to my analyses for the earnings announcements this week, and updated metrics for the seven symbols having today as their action dates.

No joy. Five symbols have mismatched trend indictors, using the Fisher Transformer, and earnings surprise expectations from Zacks. i require that those metrics be supportive of each other, not at odds. That eliminated AAPL, AMGN, GOOGL, PSX and V.

Of the two remaining, MAT has an overly wide bid/ask spread on its options grid, and AMZN — Well, at more than $1,400 per share, requires that I commit a larger proportion of my funds than usual to the trade. I don’t like such distortions of the “Trade small, trade often” philosophy that I have adopted for my trades, so it also is a pass.

(“Trade small, trade often”, by the way, is a watchword of Tom Sosnoff, who has a wealth of options strategy freely available at Tasty Trade. I highly recommend it.)

2/1 – 11:45 a.m. New York time

I’ve entered a shares position on FUN.

2/1 – 11:30 a.m. New York time

The S&P 500 is in its third day of a Fisher Transformer downtrend, and the broader markets are part of the reversal.

Reversals to a downtrend, as measured by the Fisher Transformer, eliminated five of my prospective shares trades from consideration today: AEE, CHGG, DBD, QUOT and SEDG. Of the remaining four, CTT, CUBE and FMC, while showing Fisher uptrends, have charts that are longer-term downtrending, and in a market that has obviously weakened to the upside, I’m reluctant to take them.

That leaves FUN as my sole shares trade today.

My potential directional options plays split the directions, SPWR being uptrending and WMB downtrending on their Fisher metrics after Wednesday’s close.

Except SPWR reversed to downtrending after the opening bell today, which puts it at odds with its earnings-related metrics. So its off the table.

That would leave WMB as my sole options trade today, except its implied volatility continues to hover below the 50th percentile of its annual range. I’m passing on it for now but shall keep an eye on it in days to come.

I have a group of non-directional prospects on my desk, but I’m inclined to trade them as trades that rely on the earnings announcement outcome. That would mean entering the position the session before the announcement and selling shortly after the announcement.

I shall put off consideration of new binaries until Monday, since I intend to trade the Weekly options.

2/1 – 10:40 a.m. New York time

I have exited three share positions on Fisher Transformer trend reversals and a binary position as expiration nears and the price fails to follow the Fisher trend. The shares are CG, K and UFS, and the binary is EUR/USD. Updates with results to follow later this morning.

1/31 – 10:20 p.m. New York time

I have 17 tentative prospects for further analysis of shares and equity options on Thursday, based on screening for Fisher Transformer signals and metrics from Zacks.

Two are directional plays using options: SPWR and WMB.

Five are non-directional plays using options: CBS, GG, KO, OXY and TAP.

Nine are directional plays using shares: AEE, CHGG, CTT, CUBE, DBD, FMC, FUN, QUOT and SEDG.

I have three binary options traded on Nadex, based on new trend reversals on the Fisher Transformer: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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