Live: Friday, Feb. 2, 2018

2/2 – 3:30 p.m. New York time

i exited three positions,  FUNTRP and TLND, and entered none. My one remaining position is a bear call vertical spread on UAA.

2/2 – 12 noon New York time

I have updated with results the posts of the shares positions I exited: FUNTRP and TLND.

2/2 – 11:25 a.m. New York time

TLND moved to a downtrend as measured by the Fisher Transform, and I exited my shares position.

2/2 – 10:30 a.m. New York time

The big news of the day, for me, has nothing to do with specific trades and everything to do with the environment that informs those trades.

SPY, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500, has been in a downtrend as measured by the Fisher Transform metric since Jan. 30 on the daily chart. Today on the weekly chart SPY shifted to downtrending, ending an uptrend at that level of granularity that has been in effect since Nov. 27, 2017.

The switch at the weekly level tells me that the decline in the broad markets is more than a nonce event. That makes me more cautious.

There are no directional options plays on my desk this morning. That’s not caution but simply how the metrics came in.

There are six shares plays on my desk: BLMN, CHGG, CTT, PBPB and PES. I’m passing on all of them, despite their metrics, because of the bearish bias of the broader market.

The no-fee brokerage I use for shares, Robinhood, doesn’t allow short selling, and the lower volume shares I trade can’t be traded short anywhere. So shares trades in my operations are always bullish, and today, at least, isn’t a bullish season in the markets.

I anticipate entering no new positions today..

2/2 – 9:50 a.m. New York time

Two shares positions, FUN and TRP, dropped in tandem with the broader market, triggering a reversal of their Fisher  Transform to downtrending. I exited for a loss in both cases.

2/1 – 7:30 p.m. New York time

I’m making a change in Private Trader’s daily routine, beginning this evening. My practice has been to post a prospects list after the closing bell, and then modify it with new data after the opening bell. The modifications of late have become too numerous to make that evening prospects list worthwhile.

Under the new practice, you can expect my first post on a live feed to be a note on any exits at the after the market open, and that will be followed after I complete my analysis by a list of potential trades that are on my agenda that day.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 1-2, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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