Live: Tuesday, Feb. 6, 2018

2/6 – 2:45 p.m. New York time

I entered a position on GLD and placed no other trades.

2/6 – 12:20 p.m. New York time

I have entered a bear position on GLD.

2/6 – 10:20 a.m. New York time

I made no exits during the opening bell scrum, and I have no prospective earnings plays using options for today. One of my guidelines requires that the trend be accompanied by expectations of an earnings surprise in the same direction: Uptrend and a positive earnings surprise, downtrend and a negative earnings surprise.

Since the earnings surprise score by Zacks depends upon analyst assessments, it will necessarily lag behind the chart metrics, and need there is no reason why they must agree, since they are dealing with different characteristics of the trading decision.

At any rate, I shall adhere to my rules. The one symbol in my pool that had the trend and the earnings surprise expectation in line was SAGE, and it has an overly wide bid/ask spread, so I won’t go further with it.

Instead, I shall consider the exchange-traded funds, which with their new-found high implied volatility have become attractive to options traders.

Overall, the markets have again become ambiguous after a totally unambiguous Monday. The large granularity Fisher Transform charts — the weekly and the daily — continue to show downtrends on the S&P 500 (SPY), But the chart with 3-hour bars this morning moved to an uptrend. Given the high-velocity nature of the the markets this week, I would want all three levels to be aligned.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 6, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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