The Week Ahead: The economy from end to end

Amidst jittery markets, the economic reports serve up a wide-ranging collection of data covering prices, retail, industry and housing — tracking the economy from end to end.

The big blow-out happens on Thursday, with seven reports worth looking at.

The consumer price index will be published on Wednesday, to be followed the next day by the producer price index final demand, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Retail sales will also be published on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., and industrial production, on Thursday at 9:15 a.m.

Housing starts will top off the week, on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Treasury Budget at 2 p.m.

Wednesday:  The consumer price index and retail sales, each at 8:30 a.m. business inventories at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s business outlook survey and the producer price index final demand report, each at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., the Home Builders’ housing market index at 10 a.m., the Treasury Department’s international capital report at 4 p.m.  and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Housing starts and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m., and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 10, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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