The Week Ahead: Minutes, home sales, Fed speech and a holiday

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the President’s Day holiday. Markets in London, Tokyo and Sydney will be open as usual.

The holiday will kick off a week when economics reports are so sparse as to almost be non-existent.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the Jan. 31 meeting will be published on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time. At that meeting FOMC members by unanimous vote kept the interest rate under their control unchanged.

A report on existing home sales, covering the greater part of the housing market, will be released on Wednesday at 10 a.m. The counterpart new home sales report will be published the week after.

And Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles will give a speech in Tokyo on a topic that, amid newly volatile markets, might provide insight into monetary regulators’ thinking: “10 years after the Global Financial Crisis: How has the world economy changed and where will it go?” The speech will be delivered to the International Financial Symposium organized by the Institute for International Financial Affairs, on Thursday at 12:15 a.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: U.S. markets closed for President’s Day

Wednesday: The Purchasing Managers Institute composite flash report at 9:45 a.m., existing home sales at 10 a.m. and the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Fed Vice Chairman Quarles speech at 12:15 a.m., jobless claims at 8:30 a.m.,  petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 18, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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