Live: Tuesday, March 6, 2018

3/6 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered no new positions and exited none.

3/6 – 10:45 a.m. New York time

Both of my present positions, IWM and GLD, have uptend signals from the Fisher Transform, and in both cases the Fisher disagrees with the Elliott wave count.

Under my rules, Elliott trumps Fisher. The Fisher Transform metric is a signal to take a close look at the Elliott wave count, but the wave count will determine my final decision in the setting my trading agenda.

IWM closely follows the S&P 500, which I count as being in the 4th wave up at the degree I trade, the Minuette, within a 1st wave down at one degree higher. The 4th wave has retraced a Fibonacci 61.8% of the 3rd-wave decline. That is a common reversal level, although not a guaranteed one. I shall wait a see. A break above the start of the 3rd wave, on Feb. 27, will invalidate my count.

GLD is in a 3rd wave down at the Minuette degree, and at one degree lower, the Subminuette, is in a rising 4th-wave correction. The Subminuette 4th is approaching a 100% retracement of the 3rd-wave decline, and if it exceeds the root of the 3rd wave, onĀ  Feb. 26, it will invalidate the count.

The EUR/USD fund I exited yesterday, FXE, continues to show an uptrending Fisher Transform metric with an ambiguous Elliott wave count.

The bottom at this point is that I anticipate no trades.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 6, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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