The Week Ahead: Prices, retail, housing, industry


Prices, retail, housing and industry punctuate the week’s economic reporting.

The consumer price index will be published on Tuesday, and the producer price index (final demand) on Wednesday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Concurrently with producer prices, retail sales stats will be released on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

On Friday, look for housing starts at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.

Friday is also a quadruple witching day, when market index futures and options, and stock options and futures all expire, sometimes making the markets more volatile.

I overlooked it last week, but I will note that my favorite big picture report was released last Thursday: The Z.1 – Financial Accounts of the United States report, which tells us more about money and its uses than we can even dream of knowing.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Tuesday: The consumer price index at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday: The producer price index (final demand) and retail sales, each at 8:30 a.m., business inventories at 10 a.m. and  petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey of conditions in the mid-Atlantic region, the Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York, and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m., the Home Builders’ housing market index at 10 a.m., Treasury’s international capital report at 4 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Quadruple witching all day, housing starts at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., and consumer sentiment and the job openings and labor turnover survey, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 10, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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