The Week Ahead: GDP, trade, income and a holiday


U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for a Christian religious holiday, and will close on Thursday at 2 p.m. New York time. Markets will also be closed Friday in London and Sydney, but will be open in Tokyo.

A third and final estimate of the 4th quarter gross domestic product and GDP for all of 2017 will be published on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Two other major reports will be released during the week: International trade  in goods, also on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., and personal income and outlays, on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles will address the Operation HOPE Global Forums in Atlanta on Monday at 7:10 p.m. His subject: “The Roles of Consumer Protection and Small Business Access to Credit in Financial Inclusion”.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: The Case-Shiller home price indexes of prices in 20 metro areas, at 9 a.m, and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:   GDP and international trade in goods at 8:30 all, the pending home sales index at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and personal income and outlays, each at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m., consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: U.S. markets closed.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 24, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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