The Week Ahead: Jobs, trade, Fed glitterati

Jobs week has rolled around again, with the employment situation report out Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time and the private-sector sneak preview of the jobs sitch, the ADP employment report, on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

International trade stats will be published on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Adding spice to the week: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addresses the Economic Club of Chicago on Friday at 1:30 p.m. His topic will be the economic outlook, an oldy but goody for Fed officials.

Another of the central bank’s glitterati, Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, will discuss financial stability at New York University’s Stern School of Business on Tuesday at 4:30 p.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Monday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m. and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day and a speech by Fed Gov. Lael Brainard at 1:30 p.m.

Wednesday: ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., factory orders at and the ISM non-manufacturing index, each at 10 a.m., and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment situation at 8:30 a.m. and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 1:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 31, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at