Live: Tuesday, April 3, 2018

4/3 – 3:30 p.m. New York time

I added a bear position on SPY, essentially rolling my prior IWM position, which tracks the Russell 2000, into the more narrow market index tracking the S&P 500

4/3 – 2:10 p.m. New York time

I have added a new position on SPY to my account, a bear play. The analysis includes a discussion of my decision to take the trade based on SPY’s Elliott wave count.

4/3 – 1:40 p.m. New York time

Having looked over the possibilities for new trades, I think my best bet will be to add another position on SPY to my portfolio.

At this point in our new bear market, I’m relying heavily on Elliott wave analysis. The S&P 500, which SPY tracks, is one of the easiest symbols to analyze, in part because the quirks of individual companies are smoothed out by its breadth, and in part because the extremely high volume of trading makes it a good reflection of the public sentiment.

Tolstoy wrote in his masterwork Anna Karenina, “Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”

But markets differ from families.

Bull markets, climbing a wall of worry, tend to show a great deal of individuality in the way stocks rise, depending upon the state of each company and its competitors.

Bear markets are all alike. They cascade their way down a cliff into the pit of panic, as all traders increasingly are convinced that the good times are gone — for good.

Trade and analysis to come shortly.

4/3 – 11:10 a.m. New York time

The downward rush in the broad markets has paused this morning, so will be monitoring my one remaining position, SPY, until it drops some more. It presently stands at 18.5% of maximum potential profit, and my goal is 50% or better.

My other task today will be to see what I can add to my account. That will depend on an Elliott wave analysis of the charts.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 3, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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