The Week Ahead: Prices and minutes

With the latest employment situation report out of the way, the economic reporting machinery has descended into lethargy. There’s not much happening in Econworld during the week, although I’m quite certain traders will find excitement elsewhere to keep the markets churning. President Trump? China? We’re counting on you.

The producer price index (final demand) will be published on Tuesday  and the consumer price index on Wednesday, each at 8:30 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee will release minutes of its March 21 meeting, in which it voted, without dissent, to raise the federal funds index by a quarter point to a 1.5% to 1.75% range. There might be surprises. I’m betting not.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: The producer price index (final demand) at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday: The consumer price index at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.,  and the FOMC minutes and Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m., . and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Consumer sentiment and the job openings and labor turnover survey, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 7, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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