The Week Ahead: GDP, housing, manufacturing, trade

Traders will get a first look at 1st quarter gross domestic product, including the GDP deflator, a measure of prices said to be the preferred metric of money regulators, on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

A handful of other major reports during the week spans the economy:

  • Housing: Existing home sales on Monday and new home sales on Tuesday, each at 10 a.m., along with a report that breaks out regional variations, the Case-Shiller home price index for 20 metropolitan areas, out Tuesday at 9 a.m.
  • Manufacturing: Durable goods orders on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. and the Purchasing Managers index composite flash report.
  • Exports vs. imports: international trade in goods on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The PMI composite flash report at 9:45 a.m. and existing home sales at 10 a.m.

Tuesday:  The Case-Shiller home price index at 9 a.m. and new home sales at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims, durable goods orders and international trade in goods, each at 8:30 a.m, and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP and the employment cost index, each at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 21, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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