Live: Tuesday, April 24, 2018

4/24 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

The magnitude of today’s decline has led me to revise my Elliott wave analysis, although ambiguities remain.

I am now counting the 5th wave of Submicro degree to have been completed on April 18. In my previous analysis I had labeled it as the end of the 3rds Submicro wave.

If wave [C] of the Micro wave is indeed the end of the correction, then we will have begun a 3rd wave to the downside at the Subminuette level, which will be quite bearish and therefore beneficial to my positions.

However, it is also possible that the correction is extending into more complex patterns, in which case the Subminuette 2nd wave is continuing.

Time will tell which is the correct count. As the late baseball great Yogi Berra put it, “It ain’t over ’til it’s over.”

Below, a 15-day chart with 10-minute bars on SPY:


4/24 – 11:30 a.m. New York time

SPY’s course remains consistent with the chart analysis posted Friday in my April 20 live feed; the Fisher Transform continues to show downtrending. I anticipate no trades today unless either of those metrics changes. (Analysis upon entry of my two bear positions on SPY are here and here.)

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon April 24, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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