The Week Ahead: Jobs, money policy, income, outlays, global trade

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days, with any interest rate changes being announced on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time. And on Friday, the week’s second blockbuster hits the markets: The employment situation report, out at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The jobs report gets a sneak preview with the ADP employment report, on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Other major reports during the week: Personal income and outlays on Monday and international trade on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m.,and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index, published Tuesday at 10 a.m.

Fed Vice-Chairman Randal Quarles discusses liquidity regulation and the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet at the Hoover Institution’s Monetary Policy Conference on Currencies, Capital and Central Bank Balance, in Stanford, Calif. at 5:30 p.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and pending home sales at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m. and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Open Market Committee announcement at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claimsproductivity and costs, and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m., factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing index, each at 10 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment situation at 8:30 a.m. and a speech by Fed Vice Chairman Quarles at 5:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 28, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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