The Week Ahead: Retail, housing and industry

The week’s economic reporting will highlight three broad functions of  business: Buying and selling with retail sales, out Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time,  putting roofs over heads with housing starts, out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. and making things, with industrial production, also on Wednesday, at 9:15 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts, at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday.

The leading indicators index, out Thursday at 10 a.m., aggregates the individual leaders but is itself a trailing indicators. I find it a useful bookmark of where we are in the economic cycle.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Retail sales and the Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York, each at 9:30 a.m., business inventories and the Home Builders’ housing market index, each at 10 a.m., and the Treasury international capital flows report at 4 p.m.

Wednesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey based on conditions in the mid-Atlantic region, each at 8:30 a.m., leading indicators at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 12, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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