The week’s economic reporting will highlight three broad functions of business: Buying and selling with retail sales, out Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, putting roofs over heads with housing starts, out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. and making things, with industrial production, also on Wednesday, at 9:15 a.m.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Building permits for new private homes from housing starts, at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday.
The leading indicators index, out Thursday at 10 a.m., aggregates the individual leaders but is itself a trailing indicators. I find it a useful bookmark of where we are in the economic cycle.
Events arranged by day:
Tuesday: Retail sales and the Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York, each at 9:30 a.m., business inventories and the Home Builders’ housing market index, each at 10 a.m., and the Treasury international capital flows report at 4 p.m.
Wednesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey based on conditions in the mid-Atlantic region, each at 8:30 a.m., leading indicators at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and 5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 12, 2018
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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