The Week Ahead: Housing and durables

Real estate takes the spotlight in the week’s economic reporting, with the larger part of the sector, existing home sales, out Thursday and the remainder, new home sales, out Wednesday, each at 10 a.m. New York time.

Also, look for durable goods orders on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

In Fedworld, minutes of the May 2 Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be published on Wednesday at 2 p.m. At that meeting members voted unanimously to keep the federal funds target unchanged at 1.5% to 1.75%.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard speaks on revitalization of the Community Reinvestment Act at a conference of the Association for Neighborhood and Housing Development in New York City, on Friday at 9:15 a.m. The event will be streamed live to viewers who register, here.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Wednesday: The PMI composite flash report at 9:45 a.m., new home sales at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., existing home sales at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m., a speech by Fed Gov. Brainard at 9:15 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 19, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

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