The Week Ahead: Global Trade



International trade statistics are the only potential market-moving report of the week, perhaps especially notable because they provide fresh numbers to feed into the analysis and politics of the trade dispute between the Trump administration and the U.S.’ North American and European trading partners. The report will be published Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Also, my favorite big-picture report: The Federal Reserve will publish the 1st quarter Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1) on Thursday at noon. As a quarterly report it’s not a leader, nor is it a market-mover, but the sheer breadth of information it contains makes it a read for traders who bring longer-term thinking to their analysis.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Monday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Factory orders at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: The Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index and the job openings and labor turnover survey, each at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., Financial Accounts of the United States at noon and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 2, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at