Live: Monday, June 25, 2018

3:05 p.m. New York time

I entered one new position today, an options bear play on SPY. Despite a sharp decline, I decided to hold my shares bull play on ARKG.

1:15 p.m. New York time

I’ve entered a bear call vertical spread position on SPY.

12:30 p.m. New York time

I had said in an earlier post that I was uncertain of my assignment of degrees to waves in my SPY analysis. The picture has become clearer, and I have redone the charts.

First, the longer term, a 180-day chart with daily bars. It shows the 3rd wave of the Minuette degree having begun on June 13.


The shorter term chart, a 20-day span with hourly bars, shows that the decline is a 3rd wave at lower degrees as well, down at least as far as the Micro degree {-2}, at which point I stopped diving.


Bottom line: I can re-establish my bear call spread options series on SPY, and shall do so today.

11 a.m. New York time

Elliott wave analysis of ARKG shows the 3rd wave of Minor degree {+2} has ended its upward course, and the 4th wave of that degree has begun, from June 21. The movement is within the context of the 3rd wave of Intermediate degree {+3}, which in turn is within the 5th wave of Primary degree {+4) that began in mid-November 2017.

The chart spans 90 days with three-hour bars


From the outset I positioned ARKG as a longer-term trade. It’s a shares position rather than options, and so there are no expirations to worry about. My goal is to trade the Primary degree {+4}, although since I’m trading counter the trend of the broader market, I may out of caution lower that to the Intermediate degree {+3}.

Since the present decline is one degree smaller, the Minor degree {+2}, I see no need to trade out at this point.

10:20 a.m. New York time

SPY gapped to the downside at the open, and my other holding, ARKG, gave a powerful push downward.

The direction on both is consistent with my prior analysis, but given the power of the movements, I shall redo the charts to see if my model needs to be revised.

For the moment I see no trades today, but that could change. I shall post the charts later today.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 25, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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