The Week Ahead: Jobs, global trade, manufacturing and a holiday

Jobs take center stage in a week split by Wednesday’s Independence Day holiday in the United States. U.S. markets will be closed on Wednesday, but London, Tokyo and Sydney will be open as usual.

The employment situation report will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, and the jobs report sneak preview, the ADP employment report, will be out on Thursday — a day later than usual –at 8:15 a.m.

Two other major reports out during the week: International trade, on Friday at 8:30 a.m., and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, published Monday at 10 a.m.

In Fedworld, the Federal Open Market Committee will release minutes from its June 12-13 meeting on Thursday at 2 p.m. At that meeting the FOMC voted unanimously to raise the target federal funds rate by a 25 basis points to a range of 1.75% to 2%.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Monday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday:  The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day and factory orders at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: U.S. markets closed in celebration of Independence Day.

Thursday: ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. the Federal Open Market Committee minutes release at 2 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment situation and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 30, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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