Live: Monday, July 9, 2018

11:10 a.m. New York time

SPY gapped to the upside this morning, casting doubt on my Elliott wave count. I shall wait to gain some clarity about the chart before posting a re-analysis. ARKG is moving as expected.

I anticipate no trades today.

I had noted last week that I was taking a look at resuming earnings plays, with no great hopes that it would be possible in the current markets.

Initially, I plan to use Elliott wave analysis to gain a sense of what direction I expect the price to move, and the last two historical moves to gain a sense of magnitude, and then, on paper, see how it successful that prediction was.

PEP published earnings this morning before the opening bell.

I counted it as being in a 4th wave correction to the upside on the one-year chart, and shorter term, in a sideways movement within that wave. The last two historical moves were each 1%. So my expectation was for a small move of indeterminate direction.

PEP opened 3.9% below the pre-earnings close, but the test is where does it close at Friday’s expiration, the presumption being a very short-term play. I’ll keep track and post a table of all outcomes over the weekend.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 9, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


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