The Week Ahead: GDP, global trade, durables, home sales


We get a first look at Gross domestic product for the 2nd quarter, April through June, on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. GDP counts in the markets if there’s a surprise; usually, there’s not, but my crystal ball, like yours, shattered long ago. So as rational traders, we must take events as they unfold.

The disposition of those goods will be studied through international trade in goods, reporting how much was imported from abroad and how much exported, and by implication, how much stayed within the American economy. The global trade stats will be published on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Demand for those goods will also gain some insight, from the durable goods orders report, also on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

And the always fascinating housing sector will see two major reports, existing home sales on Monday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Existing home sales at 10 a.m.

Tuesday:  The Purchasing Managers Institute composite flash index at 9:45 a.m.

Wednesday: New home sales at 10 a.m. and  petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Durable goods ordersinternational trade in goods and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m.,  and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday:GDP at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 10-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and  10-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 21, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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