The Week Ahead: Jobs, interest rates, income, spending, global trade


It’s a two-scoop sundae week in economic reporting, with the first scoop flavored as a two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, ending with an announcement of changes to the Fed funds interest rate on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time.

The second scoop comes in the form of the monthly look at jobs, the employment situation report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. A sneak preview, the private-sector ADP employment report, will be published on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Other major reports sprinkling the sundae are personal income and outlays on Tuesday and international trade on Friday, each at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Pending home sales at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Personal income and outlays and the employment cost index, each at 8:30 a.m., the Case-Shiller home price index for 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Open Market Committee announcement at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., factory orders at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The employment situation and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m., and the Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing survey at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 10-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and  10-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 28, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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