Live: Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2018

10:35 a.m. New York time

By my  Elliott wave count, we’re at a turning point in the counter-trend rise that began April 2.

In the chart below, I focus on the final wave, a 5th wave of the Minuscule degree {-4}, and it’s internal waves, at a level so small it lacks a name. Let’s agree to call it the “Tiny”. By my count, SPY is in the 5th wave of the Tiny degree {-5}.

The chart covers Aug. 1 to the present, with 5-minute bars.


By “turning point” I mean that the first leg of the counter trend correction, the A wave of Submicro degree {-3} is nearing completion, to be followed by a downward B wave, which often has three waves internally, and then a C wave to the upside that will complete the 2nd wave of Micro degree.

The proper identification of degrees is always a matter of ambiguity in Elliott. But for my purposes what counts is the relationship among the waves — how far along as the price movement progressed. In that latter respect Elliott wave analysis can be made with great confidence.

My present position expires Aug. 17. It is loss-making at this point. Given how far advanced the A wave is, the rational choice is to delay until the last possible moment before getting out.

Or as the Earth-child raised by Martians, Valentine Michael Smith, put it in Robert A. Heinlein’s 1961 masterwork Stranger in a Strange Land, “Waiting is.”

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 7, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


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