The Week Ahead: GDP, trade, income, outlays

gdp

Traders get a second look at 2nd quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Perhaps of greater importance in this era of Fed tightening of available credit, the report will include the GDP price index, a deflator used in the reporting that the Federal Open Market Committee uses in preference to the more widely known Consumer price index.

As go prices, so goes the Fed, as goes the Fed, so goes the economy, your job, your paycheck and your family’s ability to eat out this Friday and take a great vacation next summer. High stakes indeed.

Also out during the week, international trade in goods on Tuesday and personal income and outlays on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: International trade in goods at 8:30 a.m., the Case-Shiller home price index covering 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Gross domestic product at 8:30 a.m., pending home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and personal income and outlays, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply and the Federal Reserve balance sheet, each at at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and the University of Michigan consumer expectatons survey at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 10-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and  10-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 25, 2018

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License
Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

 

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